Feasibility Analysis of Toll Road Investment Due to the Risk of Construction Cost Increases and Schedule Changes (Patimban Port Access Toll Road)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35194/jmtsi.v10i1.6014Keywords:
Investment Feasibility , Toll Road , Sensitivity Analysis , Risk of Construction Cost, Monte Carlo simulationsAbstract
The development of toll road infrastructure as a national priority faces significant challenges in the form of construction cost uncertainties and implementation schedule changes that can affect investment feasibility. This study aims to analyze the impact of construction cost escalation risk and schedule changes on the investment feasibility of the Patimban Access Toll Road. The research was conducted using a quantitative method with sensitivity analysis, utilizing relevant financial data, traffic data, and supporting documents. Financial feasibility analysis employed Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return indicators complemented by sensitivity analysis to measure the impact of construction cost variations and schedule changes on investment return rates. This research uses a quantitative approach with an integrated financial analysis method. Data collection was conducted through a comprehensive documentation study of the project's financial, technical, and operational data, which was then analyzed using mathematical models and simulations. The project demonstrates good financial feasibility under normal conditions with an NPV of IDR 1,250.35 billion, an IRR of 12.85% and a payback period of 15.5 years. The risk of construction cost increases significantly impacts the project, with a 30% increase from the basic design to the RTA of IDR 734.64 billion. However, Monte Carlo simulations indicate the project still generates a positive NPV of IDR 198.76 billion at a 95% confidence level. The Monte Carlo simulation proved effective in capturing the complexity of risk variable interactions with the highest correlation (0.88) between delay and IDC and (0.78) between delay and land acquisition costs.
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